Cromford® Market Index – Large Cities

The average CMI is down 0.8% from last month. This is marginally less favorable for buyers than last week. The market just does not seem to be able to make up its mind which direction to head. Supply has stabilized but is still drifting down slightly, while demand remains weak but has stopped getting worse. This does not add up to a perceptible change in the market as a whole, though several sub-markets are changing to a greater degree.

The number of cities moving in a direction favorable to buyers is twelve, one more than last week. We have only six moving in a direction that is favorable to sellers. Among these, Paradise Valley stands out for sellers with an exceptional +23%, with Cave Creek and Glendale far behind at +8% and +7%. In the other direction, the Southeast Valley is the main region moving in favor of buyers at the moment. San Tan Valley (-11%), Tempe (-8%), Chandler (-8%), and Maricopa (-8%) feature prominently in the list of 12 cities moving in this direction.

We once again have 8 cities in a seller’s market, 4 balanced, and 6 in a buyer’s market.

The average CMI is down 1.3% from last month. This is the same monthly change we measured last week, showing a small deterioration in the situation for sellers. Supply has stabilized and is no longer coming down, but demand continues to slowly weaken. Both changes mean there is little change being felt in the market from this time last month.

The number of cities moving in a direction favorable to buyers is eleven, one more than last week. We have seven moving in a direction that is favorable to sellers. Paradise Valley has improved the most for sellers (+14%), with Cave Creek a distant second at +7%. In the other direction, Tempe is still showing a significant move in favor of buyers at -9%, but has been overtaken by San Tan Valley (-12%) and is rivaled by Chandler also at -9%. The Southeast Valley is still looking weak relative to the rest of Greater Phoenix, with the Northeast Valley and the Northwest Valley holding up better.

We once again have 8 cities in a seller’s market, 4 balanced, and 6 in a buyer’s market.

The average CMI is down 1.3% from last month. This represents a small deterioration in the situation for sellers. Supply is coming down slowly, but demand is falling slightly faster. Both changes are barely detectable unless you peer into the numbers for a long time.

The number of cities moving in a direction favorable to buyers is ten, the same as last week. We have eight moving in a direction that is favorable to sellers. Scottsdale and Paradise Valley have improved the most for sellers (+8%), with Peoria just behind at +7%. In the other direction, Tempe is still showing a big move in favor of buyers at -11%, but has been overtaken by San Tan Valley (-12%). The Southeast Valley is looking weak relative to the rest of Greater Phoenix, with the Northeast and West holding up better.

We once again have 8 cities in a seller’s market, 4 balanced, and 6 in a buyer’s market.

The average CMI is unchanged over the last month. While individual cities have risen or fallen, there is very little of interest I can tell you, as the average change is 0.0%. In general, supply has fallen, but a similar drop in demand has offset this. In the more expensive areas, supply has dropped significantly as listings expire for the summer months. These areas look better for sellers because they have less competition, not because there are more buyers.

For sellers, it is a little worse than last week, when we saw a 1% increase in the average CMI, the same percentage that we measured the week before. I guess that is good news for buyers, but only just.

The number of cities moving in a direction favorable to buyers is ten, three more than last week. We have eight moving in a direction that is favorable to sellers. Once again, Fountain Hills and Paradise Valley have improved substantially for sellers, while Scottsdale is up by 9%. In the other direction, Tempe is still showing big moves in favor of buyers. The Southeast Valley, in general, is looking less good for sellers and better for buyers; the best city for sellers is Mesa, with a slight change from 120.4 to 120.3.

We now have 8 cities in a seller’s market, 4 balanced, and 6 in a buyer’s market.

The average CMI is up 0.5%, which is better for sellers than the 0.3% drop we saw last week. But considering they measure a whole month’s change, both are close to zero.

The number of cities moving in a direction favorable to buyers is nine, two fewer than last week. We also have nine cities moving in sellers’ favor. The overall single-family detached market has changed direction, but by so small a margin that it hardly matters. Paradise Valley, Fountain Hills, Cave Creek, and Scottsdale have shown the largest percentage moves in favor of sellers. Tempe and Queen Creek were the leading cities moving in favor of buyers.

The overall movement in the balance between supply and demand has remained very small over the past 4 months. Both demand and supply are gently declining, and it is a close call as to which is moving faster. However, we can see that more expensive areas are increasing their CMI at the expense of the cheaper locations. Buyers with smaller budgets have more negotiation power, which is probably an unusual feeling for them. This power increases with the property’s distance from the center of Phoenix.