For the monthly period ending July 15, we are currently recording a sales $/SF of $304.32, averaged across all areas and types in the ARMLS database. This is up 0.4% from the $301.22 we now measure for June 15. Our forecast range midpoint was $307.78, so this month we got the direction right but overestimated its size. We were high, by 1.1%. The median sales price has remained stable. The monthly median price currently stands at $451,000, down from $457,500 last month but up from $445,990 a year ago.
On July 15, the pending listings for all areas and types show an average list $/SF of $317.91, down 1.3% from the June 15 reading. This suggests that closed prices are likely to fall again over the next month, though our outlook remains very uncertain, depending on how many ultra-luxury homes close escrow. This would be more normal than last month’s increase because, seasonally, we usually see prices dip during the third quarter. Among the pending listings, we have 96.1% normal, 1.7% in REOs, and 2.3% in pre-foreclosures (including a very small number of short sales). The level of distress is higher than last month and, though it remains low compared to the average over the last 25 years, we are seeing a distinct upward trend in pre-foreclosure activity and a rise in lender-owned listings.
Our midpoint forecast for the average monthly sales $/SF on August 15 is $300.36, down 1.3% from the July 15 reading. We have 90% confidence that it will fall within ± 2% of this midpoint, i.e., in the range $294.35 to $306.37.