S&P/Cotality Case-Shiller Indexes for August 2026

The latest S&P Cotality Case-Shiller® Home Price Index® numbers were published today. The new report covers home sales from April to June 2026. This means the typical home sale closed in mid-May, more than 3 months ago. We should remember that Case-Shiller data is based on older sales and does not include data from July…

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Mid-Month Pricing Update and Forecast

For the monthly period ending August 15, we are currently recording a sales $/SF of $292.77, averaged across all areas and types in the ARMLS database. This is down 3.6% from the $303.74 we measured for July 15. Our forecast range midpoint was $300.36, so although we predicted a significant fall, we underestimated it by…

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Price Analysis: Part Three – A Longer-Term View

In our last two posts, we studied the weak period in the housing market that has lasted since the froth of the COVID frenzy blew away. Using the most recent price peak as the baseline means almost all methods of measuring home prices show a gloomy picture because, by definition, we started at the top…

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Prices Since the Peak: Part Two

Prices Since the Peak, Part 2: Not Every Region Got the Memo Yesterday we sliced Greater Phoenix by dwelling type. This time we slice it by geographic region, single family detached only, and two regions refuse to follow the script everyone else stuck to. Same method as yesterday: median $/SF (not average, not price), each…

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Why Median $/SF Doesn’t Lie (and What It Says About Phoenix Since May 2022)

Averages are for people who don’t want to know the truth. Here’s why we measure the market the way we do — and what four years of real numbers say about where your dwelling type actually stands since the peak. The Case Against Averages (and Half of Medians) There are four common ways to measure…

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